478 ABNT20 KNHC 140510TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Roberts

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 10:40:18 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

478 
ABNT20 KNHC 140510
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 10:40:18 GMT

ABPZ20 KNHC 140513
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next 
day or two near the coast of Central America.  Afterward, some 
gradual development of this system is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of Central America and 
southern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)
  ...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 15.9, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Dalila

• Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7
  Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 979 WTPZ34 KNHC 140847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 7
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 501 WTPZ24 KNHC 140845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 330SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7
  Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots. Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data and taking into account the potential for some under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus guidance. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the 26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 874 FOPZ14 KNHC 140848 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT ]]>