National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BOX NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191149
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
649 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will bring showers late today and tonight. This
will set the stage for near record high temperatures Tuesday and
especially Wednesday, so long as enough sunshine is realized.
Cooler temperatures work into the region Thursday into the
weekend, but still expecting them to remain above normal. Best
chance for unsettled weather will be sometime Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 am update...

High pressure in control of our weather early this morning with
mainly clear skies and chilly temps. The high will move east of
the region today as a warm front approaches from the south. This
will result in a rapid increase in cloud cover late this morning
into mid afternoon from west to east. There is enough lift/forcing for a
band of showers to move into parts of interior southern New
England late this afternoon, covering the entire area by
evening.

High temps will top out well into the 40s today...but
not out of the question that a few locales touch 50.
Also...expect to see southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph
develop with a few gusts up to 30 mph as the low level jet
strengthens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

With continued S-SW wind flow in place, will see good chance
for showers through most of the night. Will see QPF amounts on
order of 0.1 to 0.2 inches. Will also see patchy fog develop,
though may be locally dense along S coastal areas at times.
Some question whether dense fog will linger and become more
widespread with the steady S-SW winds in place.

Showers may start to taper off across northern areas after
midnight.

Will see non-diurnal temp trends across the region tonight with
the mild wind flow in place. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s
expected early, which may reach close to 50 toward daybreak
along the coastal plain.

Tuesday...

A few showers and patchy fog may linger along S coastal areas
early, then should push offshore by around midday. However,
clouds will likely linger across most areas through the day.

The big question will be whether the clouds will break during
the midday and afternoon hours across the interior. If the
clouds do break, temps could soar higher than currently
forecast.

At this point, the clouds should linger but still have
forecasted temps reaching the lower 60s away from the S coast
where temps will hold in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights...

* Wednesday: Near all time February record highs might be
  approached if enough sunshine is realized

* Cooler Thu/Fri into next weekend but temps still above normal

* Unsettled weather possible sometime Friday into next weekend
  with ptype favoring rain although a bit of ice/snow can not be
  ruled out

Details...

Tuesday night...

Massive southeast upper level ridge will result in an anomalous
southwest flow of very mild air into southern New England. Low
temps may not drop below 50 away from the cooler marine
influence of the south coast. Some low clouds and fog are
certainly possible...especially near the Cape/Islands with high
dewpoint air moving over the relatively cool ocean.

Wednesday...

Anomalous upper level ridge of 594 decameters off the southeast
coast will pump an incredibly mild airmass into our region for
late February standards. This will result in 850T rising to
between +12C and +14C. Given southwest flow...high temperatures
will climb well into the 60s to lower 70s inland from the
cooling marine influence of the southeast New England coast. If
this ends up being the case...record highs would be broken and
near all time February record high temperatures would be
challenged. The one fly in the ointment is if we are jammed up
in a bunch of low clouds. NAM soundings suggests this as a
possibility...but often southwest flow is able to allow for
these to break up. However...if the low clouds remain in place
high temps would be cooler than currently forecast. Something
later shifts will have to monitor closely.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

While the southeast upper level ridge will remain in place,
1040+ MB surface high pressure system will approach from the
west and force a cold front south of the region Wed night/Thu.
The result will be significantly cooler temperatures Thursday
with high temperatures mainly in the 40s. At this time...the
bulk of the period looks dry but we can not rule out a period of
mainly ana frontal showers which are depicted in some of the
GEFS/EPS ensemble members.

Friday through Sunday....

Low confidence forecast particularly with timing, but the
potential exists for a couple rounds of unsettled weather
Friday into next weekend. Certainly not expecting the entire
period to be a washout...just impossible to try to time
individual shortwaves this far out. The southeast ridge remains
pretty strong...so ptype favors mainly rain. However...if a
couple Canadian high pressure systems are slower to retreat it
could be marginally cold enough to support a bit of snow/ice.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.

Today...Mainly VFR this morning but some MVFR cigs/vsbys should develop
this afternoon and especially by early evening. Showers
overspread much of the region between 20z and 00z.

Tonight...Areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in scattered -SHRA and
patchy fog. Local IFR possible toward the south coast, including
the Cape and islands. S winds gust up to 20 kt across Cape Cod
and the islands.

Tuesday...MVFR VSBYS/MVFR-IFR CIGS in scattered -SHRA and
patchy fog early, improving to VFR. However, MVFR to local IFR
conditions may linger along the S coast through early afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance
SHRA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Areas of MVFR/IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA with a low
risk of some ice/snow across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Today...Expanded the small craft headlines for near shore waters
by afternoon as soundings support 25 knot wind gusts. Also...some
gusts up to around 25 kt on the eastern outer waters where
Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Seas will build up to
5-6 ft there as well.

Tonight and Tuesday...S winds gusting up to 25 kt on the outer
waters from time to time. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the southern waters into Block Island and RI sounds. Small
Craft Advisories have been issued for these areas. Scattered
showers and patchy fog will bring reduced visibility tonight,
then should improve on the eastern waters Tuesday. Reduced
visibility lingers Tuesday on the southern waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate to High
confidence.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: A period of southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots
possible with the strongest winds near shore. Areas of rough
seas. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highest Observed Temperature for February...
(since records began)

Boston.........73 (2/24/2017)
Hartford.......73 (2/24/1985)
Providence.....72 (2/24/1985)
Worcester......69 (2/24/2017)

Record High Temperatures...

February.......2/20......2/21

Boston.........68 (1930) 63 (1906)
Hartford.......69 (1930) 63 (1930)
Providence.....69 (1930) 63 (1930)
Worcester......65 (1930) 59 (1930)

Record Warmest Min Temperature...

February.......2/20......2/21

Boston.........46 (1930) 45 (1994)
Hartford.......50 (1981) 49 (1981)
Providence.....48 (1981) 50 (1981)
Worcester......47 (1981) 43 (2002)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ230>234-236-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ235-237-250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
CLIMATE...Staff

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion